by calculated risk March 29, 2024 08:56:00 AM
Here is a graph of year-over-year change in shelters from the CPI report and housing from this morning's PCE report. Both are valid until February 2024.
Housing (PCE) rose 5.8% year-on-year in Februarydown from 6.1% in January and down from a cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
These measures will likely continue to slow down next year, as asking rents remain roughly flat year-on-year.
The second graph shows PCE prices, core PCE prices, and core existing homes for the past six months (annualized).
PCE price index: 2.5%
Core PCE price: 2.9%
Core minus housing: 2.3%