In fact, the biggest SMR news of 2023 was NuScale Power's upcoming decision. Abandon Despite being a flagship project in Idaho, astronomical subsidies Approximately US$4 billion from the US government.The company is much more likely to exit bankruptcy than the groundbreaking of the first nuclear reactor.
The pro-nuclear Breakthrough Institute pointed out in a paper in November 2023. article Efforts to commercialize a new generation of „advanced“ nuclear reactors are „completely off track“, he said, warning nuclear proponents not to „whistle past this graveyard“.
The institute stated: „NuScale's announcement follows several other setbacks regarding advanced reactors. Last month, another promising SMR company, X-Energy, Cancel listing plan. This week, it was forced to lay off about 100 staff.
“In early 2022, Oklo’s first license application was filed in outline. was denied It was approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission before the agency began a technical review of Oklo's Aurora reactor.
„Meanwhile, future cost estimates from TerraPower and XEnergy as part of the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Deployment Program will likely also significantly increase the cost estimates for deploying these new reactor technologies. ”
Installation complete
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just released its Renewable Energy 2023 report, which stands in stark contrast to the slump in the nuclear industry.
Nuclear power suffered a net capacity loss of 1.7GW in 2023, but renewable energy capacity additions were a record amount 507GW, an increase of almost 50% compared to 2022. This is the 22nd consecutive year in a row that renewable energy capacity growth has set a new record, he announced by the IEA. state.
The share of nuclear power in the world's electricity generation is decreasing (currently 9.2 percent) On the other hand, renewable energy 30.2%.
The IEA predicts that renewable energy will reach its next goal. 42 percent The IEA’s “main case” will see this happen by 2028, with 3,700 GW of new capacity planned over the next five years.
IEA state Over the next five years, the world is on track to add more renewable energy than has been installed since the first commercial renewable energy power plants were built more than 100 years ago.
milestone
Solar and wind combined already exceed nuclear power and IEA Note Several other milestones are on the horizon.
– By 2025, renewable energy will surpass coal-fired power generation to become the largest source of electricity generation.
– Wind power generation will surpass nuclear power generation in 2025
– Solar power generation will surpass nuclear power generation in 2026
– By 2028, renewable energy sources will account for more than 42% of global electricity generation, and the share of wind and solar power will double to 25%.
The IEA estimates that by 2023, 96% of newly installed utility-scale solar and onshore wind farms will cost less to produce than new coal or natural gas plants. state.
3x
IEA state The “Renewable Energy 2023” report states the following: “Ahead of the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, the International Energy Agency (IEA) called on governments to support five pillars of action by 2030, including It also included a goal to triple available power capacity.
“Some of the IEA’s priorities, including the goal of tripling renewable energy and doubling the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030, are part of the Global Stocktake document agreed by 198 governments at COP28. is reflected in.
“By 2030, tripling global renewable energy capacity in the power sector from 2022 levels will exceed 11,000 GW, in line with the IEA’s 2050 Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. become.“
Furthermore, „under existing policy and market conditions, global renewable energy capacity is projected to reach 7,300 GW by 2028. On this growth trajectory, global renewable energy capacity is expected to reach 7,300 GW by 2030. „This will be an increase of 2.5 times the current level, but it will still fall short of the 3 times target,“ he added.
IEA'saccelerated case” will add 4,500 GW of new renewable capacity over the next five years (compared to 3,700 GW in the “main case”), moving us closer to the 3x goal. The goal of tripling renewable energy by 2030 is a stretch, but not impossible. Conversely, the „pledge“ to triple nuclear power generation by 2050, signed by just 22 countries at COP28, absurd.
military strategy
China's nuclear program Added Generation capacity in 2023 will be just 1.2 GW, but wind and solar combined will add 278 GW.michael bernard I got it. The CleanTechnica paper notes that, taking into account capacity factors, the additional low-carbon generation from nuclear would amount to about 7 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, while wind and solar combined would contribute about 427 TWh per year, compared to 60 terawatt hours (TWh) per year for nuclear. It will more than double.
bernard commented„One of the arguments made by nuclear proponents in the West is that governments over-regulate nuclear compared to wind and solar, and that China's nuclear regulatory regime is clearly in line with that of the United States and Britain. That is not the case.
“They argue that radiation fears are creating massive and unfair headwinds, and that China has a very different balance than Western countries when it comes to public health and public health awareness. claims environmentalists are halting nuclear development in Western countries, as there are more protests in China than most Westerners realize, and the government's strategic plan are far less susceptible to public hostility.
“And finally, nuclear advocates in the West complain that NIMBYs are blocking nuclear expansion and that the power of national sentiment and NIMBYism is much weaker in China, which has a Confucian, top-down system of governance. There is.
“China's central government has a 30-year track record of building large-scale infrastructure projects, so it's not that they lack that skill. Aligning strategic objectives is also in hand: China has a strong appetite for financing strategic infrastructure with long-term national debt, and there are no headwinds there either.
“However, China has not been able to expand its nuclear program at all. In 2018 it peaked at seven reactors with a capacity of 8.2 GW. In the five years since then, it has added an average of 2.3 GW of new We have nuclear power capacity and only added 1.2 GW last year…”
this author
Dr. Jim Green is a national nuclear activist and friends of the earth australia with members of Nuclear consulting group.