April 30, 2024 – In recent weeks, COVID-19 forecasters have Wastewater MonitoringNickname Cheatingthey fear, could spark a new wave of COVID infections that recently bottomed out after surging in December.
Model released last week Jay WaylandThe data scientist has accurately predicted COVID waves since the pandemic began, warning that a surge is on the way. „He's someone that a lot of experts like me follow because he's been pretty accurate so far,“ he said. Megan L. Ranney, MD, Dean of the Yale School of Public Health;
Risk of reinfection
Additionally, Ranney said FLiRT has some worrying characteristics, including changes to the spike protein. SARS-CoV-2 is The virus that causes COVID-19 takes hold, forms colonies in the body and makes people sick.
The host vulnerability is twenty two% Ten percent of American adults have received the latest COVID vaccine, and many people haven't had the virus for a while, leaving them at risk of reinfection.
„A large proportion of the population has weakened immune systems, which makes them more susceptible to waves of infection.“ Thomas A. Russo MD, cSkin in Infectious Diseases at the University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.
There is also worrying data suggesting that even people who have received their latest COVID booster shot may not be fully protected against potential spread. Preprint A study published this week by researchers at Harvard University provides compelling evidence that the latest booster vaccines are not sufficiently resistant to the most recent and dominant variant, JN.1, and its offshoot, FLiRT. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
J.N.1 It spread around the world during the winter and still accounts for 95% of COVID cases in the United States. Omicron variety, It has been circulating in some form since 2021. Still, new variants can quickly take hold. JN.1 They accounted for almost no cases in mid-November, but by December they had risen to 21%. 85% By the third week of January.
In recent years, the spread of the coronavirus has fallen into a predictable rhythm, with larger waves in the winter followed by smaller peaks in mid- to late summer, mainly because people are spending more time indoors in poorly ventilated, air-conditioned rooms as temperatures rise outside, Russo said.
„Taking all these factors into account, if I were to look into a crystal ball, I would say we will see a resurgence in cases and hospitalizations sometime this summer,“ he said.
Protect yourself from summer storm surges
While questions remain about how effective the new boosters will be against the latest variants, staying up to date on your vaccinations remains the best way to protect yourself. For those who haven't received their latest booster shot, time is of the essence. And for those over 65 or who are immunocompromised, CDC It is recommended that you get a second, updated COVID booster shot four months after your last booster shot.
„Assuming the virus continues to evolve and immunity wanes, the general public will likely require annual booster vaccinations to remain protected,“ Ranney said.
And many experts say we need to take the virus more seriously: In general, if you're sick, you should not go to work, go out, or travel, and take time to recover so you don't spread the disease to those around you. CDC People are advised to stay home and isolate for at least 24 hours after their fever has subsided and their overall symptoms have improved. If you are in a crowded space with poor ventilation, wearing a mask remains a simple and effective preventative measure.
New treatments such as monoclonal antibodies PenguinThe drug, which the FDA granted emergency use authorization for in March, could also help protect people who are especially vulnerable if infections surge in the spring and summer, he said. Shirin Mazumdar, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare in MemphisThe drug is taken as a preventative measure for people with moderate to severe immunodeficiency. The drug is administered intravenously.in front It is a test to determine whether a patient is susceptible to COVID-19 and is designed for people who may not be able to develop adequate immunity and may need additional protection from the virus.
„This is another tool that can help people, in addition to vaccinations and other preventative measures.“ Mazumdar.
Increased risk of long COVID
Vaccination is also important for protection against long COVID, according to a study published in March 2024. The Lancet Respiratory MedicineFor Grace McCombsey, MD, who leads the long-term COVID RECOVER study at University Hospitals Health System in Cleveland, it's not the risk of acute illness that's most worrying.
She said long COVID is becoming a bigger issue for people who weren't so afraid of acute COVID. Lancet infection Recently, many people who have had long-term COVID-19 (chronic illness) have Fatigue, brain confusion, Even people who had pre-existing heart or lung problems did not necessarily become seriously ill from the infection.
The number of long COVID cases is also on the rise, with 6.8% of Americans reporting long COVID symptoms, up from 5.3% in 2022. Overall, 17.6% say they've had COVID at some point, according to the survey. CDC„The biggest concern right now is Long COVID, where we're seeing an increase in cases and people may not have an acute infection but may develop chronic illness,“ he said. Macombie.
It's unclear what impact this variant will have, but so far we know that COVID-19 has been good at spreading the disease and evading immunity. We don't know for sure if this will be the next variant to catch on, but even if it doesn't, another variant will certainly catch on, McCombsey said.
„We need to respect this virus and take it seriously because whether we like it or not, it's here and it's still making people very sick,“ she said.