The Boston Bruins are the perfect team in the NHL's eternal fatalism vs. determinism debate. Just like last year, they are once again atop the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference. Just like last year, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand are two of the best players in the league. The goaltending is outstanding, and that's by using the two goalies evenly. They are in the top five in points per game, and both special teams are above average. It looks exactly the same as when I came here last year.
Of course, we know how last year ended. A record point total and $2.40 would have given them the points to go home, which they needed after seven games against the Panthers in the first round. The difference in expected goals compared to the season, and the huge increase in actual goals scored, suddenly looked like important signs that the B team was not at full strength. Or just losing two games in overtime to a Panthers team that was better than they were in the regular season. Whatever your preferences, you wouldn't be blamed for thinking this cycle will repeat itself this year.
The Bs should be able to convince fans and spectators alike of their potential to do more than pull off another upset in Game 1. No one will believe in the goaltending tandem until they can perform in the spring, and neither Jeremy Swayman nor Linus Ullmark have ever been tasked with making a real splash on a playoff team, but if they make it to the postseason… If I had to pick one player to stop the team, it would be him. Their defensive numbers aren't as good as last year in terms of metrics (2.55xGA at even strength this year, 2.36 last year), and their goalies mostly make up for it.
But the thing that has most people looking at the Bruins with raised eyebrows and perhaps cynicism is the third and fourth lines that the Bruins will have to pretend to be No. 1 and No. 1 in April, as per regulation. This means that the center group will be expelled. .2 seconds. No, it's not easy to categorize the Bruins as favorites to win the Cup when Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zasha are the first two pivots off the bench. This may be something Boston looks to address at the league trade deadline.
To be fair to Coyle and Zasha, they are useful players. When Coyle first entered the league, it looked like he had the potential to be a two-way, imposing center who could attack anywhere he wanted. After all, there was a reason he was traded for Brent Burns. But that was a long time ago. Since then, Coyle has settled into a fairly comfortable role as a checking center with size, allowing him to participate in the attack a little more than most third-line centers. Last season, he was in the perfect position hiding behind Patrice Bergeron and David Kureishi. But when both retire, the wind suddenly starts to blow.
Coyle's metrics are below 50 percent in both shot attempts and expected goal share, but his consistent running mate Marchand, while the goalies relieve that line as needed. was able to take shots and make shots. Coyle still takes mostly dungeon shifts like before to relieve Bergeron (42 percent of his shifts start in the offensive zone), but having Marchand under center also expands his scoring role. It means to do. 30 points in 45 games is not a bad return by any means, but considering the list of other No. 1 centers in the East, or the centers the B's may have to go through to get out of the conference. For example, Brayden Point (Sasha) Barkov – Sebastian Aho/Jack Hughes/Sidney Crosby?), why are Bruins fans a little nervous about going into the playoffs with a center that is basically „okay“? Easy to understand.
It's a similar story for Zasha, who has the best seat in the house for another season of brilliance from Pastrnak but doesn't have much to do with him. Zasha is more of a creator than Coyle, but like Coyle, he has the benefit of starting most of his shifts in the offensive zone (68 percent), something Coyle doesn't, but he's stymied in terms of metrics. ing. Again, if you look around the East, almost every team that could qualify for the playoffs has at least two plus centers. B probably doesn't have one body, but only two.
So what should you do? The name most associated with the Bruins is Elias Lindholm, the Flames' pending free agent. Calgary can still claim to be in playoff contention, but they are two points out of the Wild Card spot in the West and have yet to decide whether to wave the white flag. Lindholm is more of a shooter than a creator, but that could work well with Marchand. And Lindholm can create off-cycles and forechecks that tend to disappear in playoff hockey.
However, he will be heavily pursued and will fetch a high price if he hits the market. A more interesting and riskier name to watch is Trevor Zegras. The Ducks aren't exactly looking to buy the former phenom, but they're also reportedly not completely convinced he's just a fancy hoodie. They destroyed their core of young forwards last year, including Leo Karlsson and Cutter Gauthier, so Zegras could be the chip that allows them to bring back multiple pieces. The Bruins only have three first-round picks over the next three years and would need to deal with Mason Loley, Matthew Poitras, or Fabian Rissel to make such a deal. Maybe. Zegras doesn't scream „Bruins type,“ but neither does Hampus Lindholm, the Habs' candidate for Norris, or Tyler Bertuzzi, who parlayed his brief stay in Boston into a ridiculous deal with the Leafs last year. If Zegras were to add substance to his style, Jim Montgomery would likely be the coach to do it.
And Zegras' age fits into the Bruins' next axis. Marchand is 35 years old. Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are right in their prime wheelhouse. There may not be a lot of swing left in this particular group, but Zegras can help bridge the gap to the next group. Regardless of what the B's do, whether they live in the present or look to the future, their immediate future looks a little uncertain given the current situation at the center.
Follow Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and Bluesky @Felsgate.bsky.social.