Last year, climate records „tumbled like dominoes“ as scientists confirmed 2023 will be the hottest year on record. The average temperature was 14.98 degrees Celsius, 0.17 degrees Celsius higher than the previous warmest year on record, in 2016, according to the EU's climate change service Copernicus.
But scientists at the Japan Meteorological Agency believe this record may not last long. They predict that 2024 could be even hotter, with temperatures potentially rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius than the period from 1850 to 1900.
This average is used as a proxy for pre-industrial climate, as far back as weather records go. Last year, we came close to breaking this iconic threshold (1.48 degrees Celsius above), breaking a series of climate records in the process.
El Niño
In the Paris Agreement, the international community pledged to strive to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to give the world the best chance of stabilizing the climate and reducing harm to people and wildlife.
This measurement is taken as a 10-year average, so exceeding this by one year does not mean the treaty has failed. July 2023 may have been the hottest month in the past 120,000 years (roughly the same amount of time modern humans have existed), while Antarctic sea ice will be at historic lows.
Each month from June to December was warmer than any month in the previous year, but all continents except Australia and many ocean regions set record annual temperatures. El Niño is a periodic natural phenomenon in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that brings heat to the Earth's surface, adding to the warming effect of the atmosphere and oceans on top of the effects of ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Scientists are appealing to the international community to radically reduce these emissions and prevent further warming, as they do not destabilize the Earth's climate even slightly. Her 1.5 degree change in daily temperature is negligible, but when looked at on the global average this has a very different meaning and even small changes can have a big impact.
Some climate analysts liken this to changes in body temperature, where a 1°C difference can mean the difference between a healthy person and someone with a fever. „2023 was an extraordinary year in which the climate record fell like dominoes,“ said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
abnormal heat
“Not only will 2023 be the warmest year on record, it will also be the first year with consecutive days warmer than 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial times. Emissions from wildfires also increased by 30% last year, primarily due to large fires across Canada. Marine heatwaves occurred across much of the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans, as well as off the coastlines of Great Britain and Ireland.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose to a new high of 419 ppm, and methane levels reached 1902 ppb. Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said: 'The extreme global heat leading into 2023 meant there were signs well before the end of 2023 that it would be the hottest year on record. Stated. This level of warming is consistent with climate projections.
„We expect a strong El Niño in the Pacific to influence global temperatures until 2024. We therefore predict that 2024 will be another record year, with temperatures briefly reaching 1.5 degrees for the first time. may exceed.”
Aakash Naik, a British Greenpeace activist, said: „2023 was a record-breaking year for all the wrong reasons. Rising temperatures wreaked havoc on millions of lives, while fossil fuel 'supermajors' paid shareholders the biggest dividends in history.'' handed over almost £100 billion.
“We need to keep oil and gas in the ground to stop the accelerating climate crisis, but the UK government is giving the industry annual licenses to keep drilling for years to come in the misguided pursuit of energy security.” „True leaders will stop fossil fuel companies from making money off climate change and force them to pay for the damage they are causing around the world.“
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Danny Halpin is Pennsylvania's environmental correspondent.